Lebanon's Prolonged Economic Downturn

Lebanon's GDP growth has steadily declined since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

Since the last decade, Lebanon has experienced a tremendous economic downturn, it is probably to have been caused by the failure of the government to overcome the social crisis due to the corruption and feuds between the political elites who are only concerned with the interests of their respective groups.

Lebanon has been continuing to experience a declining economic growth and began to be negative in 2018. As a result, with the total debt amounting to US$ 86 billion, Lebanese debt to GDP ratio is estimated to have been at 150%  (Third highest in the world after Japan and Greece). The unemployment rate has also continued to increase by 25% and nearly a third of Lebanese people live below the poverty line.

Lebanese inflation has been recorded soaring to 89.74% in June 2020. Meanwhile, food and beverage prices have increased by 246.42% in May 2020. The value of the Lebanese Pound has also been eroded down to 80% against the US Dollar.

Prices of basic necessities like groceries have also rapidly increased. Many businesses  collapsed and were forced to lay off their workers. As a result, many Lebanese are now unemployed and starving, on the other hand their life savings have been inevitably affected badly due to the rising inflation. This condition has caused vast majority of Lebanese people live below the  poverty line. 

Prolonged dissatisfaction and anger of the people on the government has triggered a series of anti-government mass demonstrations since 2019. Many Lebanese took off the streets to carry out mass demonstrations against the government to voice out their discontent, several mass demonstrations unavoidably turned to violence and clashes between demonstrators and the police.

After getting some insights into it, we can conclude that the economic downturn of Lebanon might have originated from the government's failure to exercise its authority. But what may have caused it? There is a significant key fact that political sectarianism is affecting the governance system. What is that? 

Lebanon is a country with a wide variety of religions and denominations. There are roughly 18 religions and sects recognized by the state, some of which are Sunni Islam, Shia, Maronite Christianity and Judaism.

The three main political institutions in Lebanon consisting of the president, speaker of parliament and the prime minister who are divided among the three largest religious groups (Maronite Christianity, Sunni Islam, and Shia Islam). The 128 parliamentary seats are also divided equally between Christians and Muslims.

Unfortunately, religious diversity does not build a sense of solidarity between them, they tend to be only concerned with their respective religious groups and also often resulting conflicts among them at some extent. As a result, the government might be running poorly due to a series of political feuds that only fight for their own interests. This condition also easily makes for some external forces to interfere the course of the Lebanese government. The diversity of religions has in fact resulted in hostility among them and made the political crisis inevitably to become an economic crisis.

Many government institutions in that country have been performing various strategies to maintain their power and interests, both illegally and legally. Corruption has permeated almost all government institutions. The government may forget about its obligation to make the country become more prosperous because they are busy with fighting each other and enriching itself.

Lebanon may have repeated Europe's fault in the Dark Ages where religion and politics were mixed. The unification of religion and politics prove to have caused disruption in many countries, especially if a country has a vast number of religions and ethnic diversity.

This however could be susceptible to raise a conflict between the political communities or societies which would be only concerned with their respective religious groups and its interests. Their government may soon be unable to exercise the governing prosess to develop their country better, their energy would be only likely to get used up to a series of political feuds which would only lead to  such a futility on the country's overall aspects. A country's  development shall always require a sense of unity and solidarity between all the sections of society involved. Thus, a country can fulfill its duties in creation of welfare and providing a sense of security for all.

Ekonomi Lebanon yang Terus Terperosok

 

 Ket: Pertumbuhan PDB Lebanon yang terus menurun sejak Krisis Keuangan Global 2008.

Sejak satu dekade terakhir, Lebanon mengalami penurunan ekonomi yang luar biasa yang kemungkinan disebabkan oleh kegagalan pemerintah dalam mengatasi krisis politik dan ekonomi karena digerogoti korupsi dan perseteruan antar elite politik yang hanya mementingkan kepentingan golongannya. 

Lebanon terus mengalami pertumbuhan ekonomi yang menurun dan mulai minus pada 2018. Akibatnya, dengan jumlah hutang mencapai US$86 Milliar, rasio utang terhadap PDB lebanon diperkirakan telah menyentuh di angka 150% (Tertinggi ketiga di dunia setelah Jepang dan Yunani). Angka pengangguran juga terus meningkat hingga berada di level 25% dan hampir sepertiga rakyat Lebanon hidup dibawah garis kemiskinan. 

Tercatat, inflasi Lebanon melonjak hingga 89.74% pada Juni 2020. Sedangkan makanan dan minuman mengalami kenaikan harga hingga 246.42% pada Mei 2020. Nilai mata uang Lebanese Pound juga telah tergerus sebanyak 80% terhadap US Dollar. 

Harga-harga kebutuhan pokok melonjak tajam serta banyak bisnis yang berguguran. Akibatnya, banyak rakyat Lebanon yang terkena phk mulai mengalami kelaparan, disisi lain tabungan mereka terus tergerus akibat inflasi yang menggila. Kondisi inilah yang membuat sepertiga rakyat Lebanon jatuh kedalam jurang kemiskinan.

Rasa ketidakpuasan dan kemarahan rakyat terus memuncak sehingga memicu rangkaian aksi demonstrasi anti pemerintah sejak 2019. Banyak rakyat Lebanon yang turun ke jalan untuk melakukan aksi demonstrasi menentang pemerintah agar memperbaiki keadaan, tak jarang beberapa aksi demo berujung kekerasan dan bentrokan antara pendemo dan polisi.

Setelah kita amati dapat disimpulkan bahwa kehancuran ekonomi Lebanon berawal dari kegagalan pemerintah dalam menjalankan kewenangan. Lebih dari itu terdapat fakta bahwa pemerintahan disana dijalankan secara politik sektarian. Apakah itu?

Lebanon adalah salah satu negara dengan beragam agama dan aliran. Ada 18 agama dan aliran yang diakui oleh negara, beberapa diantaranya yaitu Islam Sunni, Syiah, Kristen Maronit, dan Yudaisme. 

Tiga lembaga politik utama di Lebanon terdiri dari presiden, ketua parlemen, dan perdana menteri dibagi antara tiga kelompok agama terbesar (Kristen Maronit, Islam Sunni, dan Islam Syiah). Sebanyak 128 kursi parlemen juga dibagi merata antara Kristen dan Islam.

Sayangnya, keberagaman agama justru tidak membangun rasa solidaritas diantara mereka, mereka cenderung  mementingkan golongan agama masing-masing dan sering bertikai. Akibatnya pemerintahan berjalan kurang baik karena rangkaian perseteruan politik. Kondisi ini juga mengakibatkan mudahnya kekuatan eksternal dalam mengacaukan jalannya pemerintahan Lebanon. Keragaman agama telah membuat mereka terus berseteru sehingga krisis politik yang merembet menjadi krisis ekonomi tak terelakkan.

Baik pemerintah maupun institusi-institusi di negara itu pun menjalankan berbagai siasat agar kepentingannya berjalan mulus, baik secara ilegal maupun legal. Korupsi pun menjadi tak terhindarkan. Hampir semua lembaga pemerintahan disana deselimuti korupsi. Pemerintah jadi lupa akan kewajibannya untuk mensejahterakan negaranya karena sibuk berseteru dan memperkaya dirinya.

Lebanon mungkin telah mengulangi kesalahan Eropa pada masa Dark Ages dimana agama dan politik disatukan. Penyatuan agama dan politik telah terbukti menimbulkan kekacauan di berbagai negara apalagi jika itu adalah negara yang memiliki agama yang beraneka ragam.

Hal ini dapat menjadi rawan timbulnya pertentangan antar kubu yang hanya mementingkan golongannya. Energi mereka akan habis bukan untuk membangun negara ke arah yang lebih baik, tetapi energi mereka habis untuk perseteruan yang sia-sia. Pembangunan suatu negara harus didahulukan oleh rasa persatuan dan solidaritas antara pihak-pihak yang terlibat didalam suatu negara, baik rakyat maupun pemerintahnya. Dengan demikian, negara dapat memenuhi tugasnya dalam mensejahterakan rakyat dan memberikan rasa keamanan bagi warganya.