Saturday, 29 August 2020

Lebanon's Prolonged Economic Downturn

Lebanon's GDP growth has steadily declined since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.


Since the last decade, Lebanon has experienced a tremendous economic downturn, it is probably to have been caused by the failure of the government to overcome the social crisis due to the corruption and feuds between the political elites who are only concerned with the interests of their respective groups.

Lebanon has been continuing to experience a declining economic growth and began to be negative in 2018. As a result, with the total debt amounting to US$ 86 billion, Lebanese debt to GDP ratio is estimated to have been at 150%  (Third highest in the world after Japan and Greece). The unemployment rate has also continued to increase by 25% and nearly a third of Lebanese people live below the poverty line.

Lebanese inflation has been recorded soaring to 89.74% in June 2020. Meanwhile, food and beverage prices have increased by 246.42% in May 2020. The value of the Lebanese Pound has also been eroded down to 80% against the US Dollar.

Prices of basic necessities like groceries have also rapidly increased. Many businesses  collapsed and were forced to lay off their workers. As a result, many Lebanese are now unemployed and starving, on the other hand their life savings have been inevitably affected badly due to the rising inflation. This condition has caused vast majority of Lebanese people live below the  poverty line. 

Prolonged dissatisfaction and anger of the people on the government has triggered a series of anti-government mass demonstrations since 2019. Many Lebanese took off the streets to carry out mass demonstrations against the government to voice out their discontent, several mass demonstrations unavoidably turned to violence and clashes between demonstrators and the police.

After getting some insights into it, we can conclude that the economic downturn of Lebanon might have originated from the government's failure to exercise its authority. But what may have caused it? There is a significant key fact that political sectarianism is affecting the governance system. What is that? 

Lebanon is a country with a wide variety of religions and denominations. There are roughly 18 religions and sects recognized by the state, some of which are Sunni Islam, Shia, Maronite Christianity and Judaism.

The three main political institutions in Lebanon consisting of the president, speaker of parliament and the prime minister who are divided among the three largest religious groups (Maronite Christianity, Sunni Islam, and Shia Islam). The 128 parliamentary seats are also divided equally between Christians and Muslims.

Unfortunately, religious diversity does not build a sense of solidarity between them, they tend to be only concerned with their respective religious groups and also often resulting conflicts among them at some extent. As a result, the government might be running poorly due to a series of political feuds that only fight for their own interests. This condition also easily makes for some external forces to interfere the course of the Lebanese government. The diversity of religions has in fact resulted in hostility among them and made the political crisis inevitably to become an economic crisis.

Many government institutions in that country have been performing various strategies to maintain their power and interests, both illegally and legally. Corruption has permeated almost all government institutions. The government may forget about its obligation to make the country become more prosperous because they are busy with fighting each other and enriching itself.

Lebanon may have repeated Europe's fault in the Dark Ages where religion and politics were mixed. The unification of religion and politics prove to have caused disruption in many countries, especially if a country has a vast number of religions and ethnic diversity.

This however could be susceptible to raise a conflict between the political communities or societies which would be only concerned with their respective religious groups and its interests. Their government may soon be unable to exercise the governing prosess to develop their country better, their energy would be only likely to get used up to a series of political feuds which would only lead to  such a futility on the country's overall aspects. A country's  development shall always require a sense of unity and solidarity between all the sections of society involved. Thus, a country can fulfill its duties in creation of welfare and providing a sense of security for all.


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